GTESI Sector Analysis: Renewable Diesel (HEFA)

Vector	Score	Notes
IPR	High	Commercial signals are sustained beyond short-term motion. Real volumes, durable players.
SCD	Moderate	Some divergence due to feedstock volatility, but chemistry and conversion are well-aligned with narrative.
TRFI	High	Rituals are robust: investor signals, policy harmonization, major infrastructure commitments.
EED	Moderate	Relatively efficient entropy export via refinery integration, but future strain likely from feedstock bottlenecks.

Symbolic Compression Matches Operational Reality: HEFA benefits from simplicity in narrative (“vegetable oil becomes jet fuel”) and engineering. This reduces SCD and increases symbolic trust.
Strong Ritual Encoding: Players like Marathon, Neste, and Valero participate in recurring symbolic events—earnings calls, policy wins, plant expansions—that reinforce trust and belief.
Thermodynamic Coherence: Fewer unit ops, existing infrastructure, and acceptable energy input profiles allow for manageable entropy flows.
Path Dependency Advantage: Success of early plants led to rapid institutional investment, media amplification, and regulatory reinforcement—creating a strong positive feedback loop.

Marathon’s Infrastructure Fit (TXT file): Co-processing and brownfield conversion reduce symbolic and physical friction. High ritual coherence with traditional refining.
Lifecycle Performance (Saddler, Comer): Shows alignment between feedstock emissions and carbon credit performance—a strong thermodynamic-symbolic linkage.
Capital Formation: Unlike speculative DAC or ATJ, HEFA capital investment maps well to thermodynamic reality, with multiple FID-stage or operating plants.

Short-Term (1–3 years): Continued growth driven by policy, energy security narrative, and path dependence.
Mid-Term (4–7 years): Strain likely due to feedstock competition and policy rebalancing—potential SCD inflection point.
Watch for: Signs of EED strain—i.e., increasing efforts to justify expansion despite input scarcity and rising LCFS friction.

Renewable Diesel succeeds not because it is perfect, but because it exhibits high coherence across GTESI dimensions.
It is symbolically credible, thermodynamically tolerable, and ritually reinforced.
The model flags future fragility, not current collapse. But watch for IPR-SCD decoupling if feedstock cost exceeds symbolic justification.